/Shock Welsh poll puts Tories on course for huge wins in Assembly vote

Shock Welsh poll puts Tories on course for huge wins in Assembly vote

More people say they would vote Conservative than Labour in Wales at both Assembly and Westminster elections, a new poll has shown.

The survey of 1,037 people by YouGov for ITV Wales and Cardiff University puts the Tories at historic levels of support in Wales – and on course for major gains in the May 2021 National Assembly election.

When asked how they would vote in a General Election, 41% of people said they would vote Conservative, compared to 36% Labour, 13% Plaid Cymru and 5% Liberal Democrats.

How people said they would vote


Even when the preferences of 16 and 17-year-olds were included, because of new Welsh legislation that would give them the vote in 2021, more people still said they intended to vote Conservative than Labour in the next Assembly poll.

It puts the Conservative Party on course to change the face of the National Assembly – although, because of the first-past-the-post electoral system, Cardiff University Professor Roger Awan-Scully projects that Labour would remain the biggest party with 24 seats to the Conservatives 22.

Prof Awan-Scully said: “As the UK stands on the verge of leaving the EU, voters are currently rewarding the man who has led them to this point Prime Minister Boris Johnson.

“His Conservative Party is at historic levels of support in Wales and potentially on course for a major breakthrough at the next devolved election”.

How the projected vote share translates into seats in the Assembly in 2021

YouGov for ITV Wales/Cardiff University

Prof Awan-Scully projects that Labour’s 24 Assembly seats would be made up of 19 constituency seats and five regional.

The Conservatives would have 22 seats, made up of 14 constituency and eight regional – that’s double the number of seats the party took in 2016.

Plaid Cymru would gain one seat compared to 2016, keeping six constituency seats and gaining an extra regional seat.

The party currently has 10 AMs after Dafydd Elis-Thomas left and became an independent, serving Dwyfor Meirionnydd and Neil McEvoy, who was elected as a Plaid Cymru AM for South Wales Central was suspended from the party and now sits as an Indpendent.

Both seats are projected to remain Plaid seats, so unless those two politicians returned to the party, they would lose their seats.

Kirsty Williams would remain the only Lib Dem in the Assembly.

The seven-seat Ukip contingent returned in 2016, which has fractured into a combination of Ukip, Brexit Party and Independent AMs, would disappear.

Prof Awan-Scully said it was significant finding ahead of the National Assembly election.

“Since the inaugural election to the National Assembly in 1999, Labour have always much been the largest party in the chamber.

“Our new poll indicates that, around fifteen months from the next devolved election in Wales, we are currently on course for a rather different type of politics in what will soon to be known as Senedd Cymru/the Welsh Parliament.

“Overall, our latest Welsh Political Barometer poll suggest that these are good times in which to be a Welsh Conservative.

“Indeed, those times have never been better: on all three vote intention measures, the party is equalling or exceeding the best ratings they have ever scored before. But if nothing else, the last few years in politics should have taught us to take nothing for granted.

“Last May the Welsh Tories scored only 6.5% of the vote in the European elections; now they are buoyant. Within another few months, who knows where things will be?”

When asked how they would vote in their constituency seat at the next Assembly election, people said:

Conservatives: 35% (+4)

Labour: 33% (no change)

Plaid Cymru: 19% (+1)

Liberal Democrats: 5% (-2)

Brexit Party: 4% (-3)

Greens: 3% (no change)

Others: 1% (no change)

The 35% support for the Conservatives is their highest ever reported vote intention for the constituency vote in an Assembly election.

Based on a uniform swing, that would mean the Tories would gain:

  • Vale of Glamorgan
  • Vale of Clwyd, Gower
  • Wrexham
  • Cardiff North
  • Clwyd South
  • Newport West
  • Delyn

When asked how they would vote in the regional list at the next Assembly election, people said:

Conservatives: 32% (+4)

Labour: 32% (no change)

Plaid Cymru: 19% (no change)

Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)

Greens: 3% (-1)

Brexit Party: 3% (-4)

Others: 5% (+1)

That would mean the Welsh Conservatives equalling their best-ever showing, from early May 2017, resulting in the following breakdown of regional AMs:

North Wales: 3 Labour, 1 Plaid

Mid and West Wales: 2 Labour, 2 Conservative

South Wales West: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid

South Wales Central: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid

South Wales East: 2 Conservative, 2 Plaid

The poll also asked people about what they would do in a General Election.

That too shows a rise in Conservative support.

AMs debate lowering the voting age:

Video Loading

Video Unavailable

Prof Awan-Scully said: “After the strong Conservative performance in December, and the further boost they have had in post-election polls conducted across Britain, it is no surprise to see the Tories doing well in our latest poll.”

Conservatives: 41% (+4)

Labour: 36% (-4)

Plaid Cymru: 13% (+3)

Liberal Democrats: 5% (-1)

Brexit Party: 3% (-2)

Greens: 2% (+1)

Others: 1 (no change)

“These are historically good figures for the Conservatives in Wales. Their 41% support equals the highest rating they have obtained in general election voting intention this century. Labour, by contrast, see their support slip since the general election.

“Plaid Cymru will be reasonably pleased with a modest rise in their support; all other parties, however, are at very low levels of support.”

It would be an even worse picture in terms of a General Election for Labour, with the latest poll showing a further loss of four seats – Alyn and Deeside, Gower, Newport East and Newport West all gained by the Conservatives, tying the two parties both on 18 seats with Plaid Cymru taking the remaining four.

The poll, for ITV-Cymru Wales and Cardiff University, had a sample of 1,037 Welsh adults (including a small number of respondents aged 16 and 17) and was carried out by YouGov from 20 to 26 January 2020.

Original Source