/Graph shows just how bad UK coronavirus death toll may be

Graph shows just how bad UK coronavirus death toll may be


Graph shows just how bad UK coronavirus death toll may be
Graph shows just how high the death count may be (Picture: Metro.co.uk / Source: FT)

As many as 41,000 people have already died from coronavirus in the UK, according to new analysis of official figures.

The estimate from the Financial Times (FT) includes deaths outside of hospitals, and is calculated by analysing the latest figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The FT said it calculated a ‘conservative estimate’ of 41,102 deaths in the UK by looking at the relationship between ONS figures and the daily hospital deaths, which it says has remained stable during the pandemic.

It is significantly more than double the figure of 17,337 released by the Department of Health (DoH) yesterday.

The DoH releases figures every day but it only counts people who have died in hospitals after testing positive for the virus.

The government’s figures have been proved to underestimate the true coronavirus death toll by the ONS, which releases its data every week and includes deaths in the community, such as at nursing homes.

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BRISTOL, ENGLAND - APRIL 21: A woman gets tested at the 'drive-thru' COVID-19 swab testing facility at Ashton Gate stadium for NHS staff on April 21, 2020 in Bristol, United Kingdom. The British government has extended the lockdown restrictions first introduced on March 23 that are meant to slow the spread of COVID-19. (Photo by Finnbarr Webster/Getty Images)
A woman gets tested at the ‘drive-thru’ Covid-19 testing facility at Ashton Gate stadium in Bristol (Picture: Getty)

Data from the ONS yesterday revealed the number of coronavirus deaths in England and Wales up to April 10 was 41% higher.

The ONS said 13,121 people in England and Wales had died by April 10 with mentions of Covid-19 on their death certificates, compared with 9,288 in the government’s daily toll.

The FT said it calculated a ‘conservative estimate’ of 41,102 deaths in the UK by analysing the relationship between ONS figures and the daily hospital deaths, which it says has remained stable during the pandemic.

Covid-19 was mentioned in a third of all death certificates issued in England and Wales in the week to April 10. In London, more than half of the death certificates issued that week mentioned Covid-19.


Weekly Deaths Registered in England & Wales vs. Min & Max Range Between 2010 & 2019 - Coronavirus Graph
Graph shows all deaths in England and Wales, registered up to Apr 10 (Picture: ONS)

Meanwhile, the number of deaths in care homes has doubled in just four weeks.

The new data showed nearly one in five (16.8%) of all deaths occurring in care homes involved Covid-19 in the week ending 10 April.

A total of 1,043 people died in care homes in that week, while 87 died in hospices. The ONS said 466 died in private homes and a further 66 died in other locations.

There were 8,673 coronavirus deaths in hospitals in the same time period.

It is important to note that the ONS figures are based on mentions of Covid-19 on death certificates, whether or not the deceased had tested positive for coronavirus.

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